In an era marked by rapid technological evolution, the transport and mobility sector exemplifies a domain of continuous innovation and transient trends. Amid this whirlwind of progress, discerning which technologies will leave a lasting imprint on the fabric of mobility and reshape the way we conceptualise fleet management becomes crucial. The “Hype Cycle for Transportation and Smart Mobility” report, an annual compendium crafted by global technology consultancy Gartner, serves as a beacon for stakeholders seeking to navigate these turbulent waters.
The 2023 edition of this pivotal report introduces a roster of emergent technologies poised to redefine the landscape of mobility. Among these, commercial space travel, electric maritime vessels, aircraft, and ion-propelled unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) stand out, albeit with a timeline exceeding a decade for mainstream adoption. This horizon aligns with Gartner’s projections for both hypersonic aircraft and the Hyperloop, signalling a period of gestation before these innovations achieve ubiquity.
Yet, the discourse within the fleet management community gravitates towards more imminent technological breakthroughs. Hydrogen-powered transportation, Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS), micromobility solutions, and the advent of autonomous vehicles are identified as pivotal developments poised to influence fleet decision-making processes in the near term.
Autonomous Vehicles: Navigating the Road Ahead
Gartner’s insights reveal that autonomous vehicle technology is teetering on the edge of mainstream acceptance, with a window of five to ten years before full integration. The implications for operational efficiency, vehicular utilisation, and road safety are profound. Jonathan Davenport, Gartner’s Senior Director Analyst, emphasises the transformative potential of self-driving technology across various sectors, including ride-hailing and micromobility, propelled by advances in artificial intelligence.
The transition towards autonomy is expected to unfold incrementally, with current advancements in advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) setting the stage for more sophisticated autonomous capabilities. Regulatory milestones, such as the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe’s (UNECE) endorsement of SAE Level 3 vehicle automation, are paving the way for the deployment of these technologies on public thoroughfares.
Mobility-as-a-Service: The Path to Integration
MaaS, heralded as a paradigm shift in urban mobility, is on the cusp of becoming a mainstream fixture within two to five years, as per Gartner’s forecast. By amalgamating various modes of transportation into a cohesive, user-friendly platform, MaaS promises to deliver an efficient, sustainable alternative to conventional vehicle ownership. However, the journey towards widespread adoption is fraught with challenges, from regulatory hurdles to the inertia of mass transit authorities, as noted by Pedro Pacheco, Vice President of Research at Gartner.
Despite these obstacles, successful MaaS implementations, such as the Go-Hi project in Scotland and Nottingham City Council’s initiative in England, exemplify the model’s potential to revolutionise urban mobility.
Shared Mobility and Hydrogen Transportation: On the Horizon
The discourse extends to shared mobility solutions, which Gartner identifies as nearing mainstream status. This model, underpinned by car-sharing, ride-hailing, and bike-sharing services, aims to mitigate reliance on private vehicles, with the post-pandemic resurgence of urban life serving as a catalyst for its growth.
Conversely, the debate between battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and hydrogen-powered alternatives underscores the complexities of achieving zero-emission transportation. Despite BEVs’ current dominance, the intrinsic advantages of hydrogen—most notably in refuelling speed for large vehicles—underscore its potential as a viable contender in the quest for sustainable mobility.
In conclusion, the transport and mobility sector stands at the precipice of a transformative era, with technologies such as autonomous vehicles, MaaS, and hydrogen transportation poised to redefine the contours of fleet management. As these innovations navigate the path from conceptualization to mainstream adoption, their trajectory will undoubtedly influence the strategic decisions of business executives and fleet managers in the years to come.
